Google Chrome has just been announced, all bells and whistles. Fanboys and haters around the world are rejoicing at the prospect of something new to play with. Standardistas already love it, Javascript developers adore its lightning-fast Javascript, techies added just another app to their arsenals.
But it’ll never win the ‘nets bet, at least not anytime soon.
Why?
For a huge majority of people out there, Internet is synonym with that blue “e” icon with the swirl around it. Yes, that. That’s the ‘nets for them. That’s their gateway to the online world.
They don’t even know what a browser is. How will they switch to another?
For most of those people, Google is the synonym of search. Will they take it lightly that their favourite search tool suddenly wants to become their Internet? Sounds freudian, no?
So till these people die, or some kind relative educates them on browsers and alternatives, things won’t really change. Google Chrome will be just another thing made from us, for us.
Pessimistic? Maybe. Smash-in-the-head-realistic? Sure.
P.S. I see myself deleting this post due to inaccuracy in 3 years. A vivid mental image, to be precise.
17 comments on this post
Mike Vitoroulis #1
03.Sep.08
I agree with you in that it most will not likely catch on, but disagree with your logic. Similar things were said about Firefox when it was “new”, and look how it exploded…
I think the biggest reason why the “normal” user wont switch to it is that there is nothing (yet?) that appeals to them. Firefox has its speed, security, and add-ons which makes it popular to everybody. The average user doesn’t know what WebKit is or could (unfortunately) care less about it’s swiftness in executing scripts, which is all Chrome has going for it.
Apart from that the interface is horrid. I can only imagine how much worse it will be when it comes to OS X.
dimitris @ insideabox #2
03.Sep.08
i think that google will come up with a great distribution trick via search engines. also has the plus of the widget desk/web app philosophy.
barak #3
03.Sep.08
It took four years for Firefox to reach 20% and that without having MS investing heavily on the web.
Besides there is a huge question mark regarding privacy. I for one don’t trust Google anywhere around my browsing data/habits.
From the other hand I think that Chrome is far more than a browser, it’s meant to be a platform. In the end it depends on the variety of application we’ll see in the next couple of years build on top of Chrome. If they’re innovative it might succeed.
Antonis #4
03.Sep.08
I believe that Chrome has much better chances than what Firefox began. I dare say that it’s destined to become something big.
Back then, there was only IE. Back then computers == Windows and the Internet == IE. Mozilla was a completely unknown entity, coming from the depths of scary Nerdom. Firebird did not render most of the pages correctly because they were written just for IE.
Now things are different. People have at least heard of Firefox. People know that there’s more to computers than Microsoft, they know there’s Apple around, hell, they even know there’s this strange kid in the block called Linux. Websites are more standards compliant, they work on Firefox, they work on iPhone.
Google is a known name. For some the Internet == Google and/or Yahoo. They’ve seen Google work, they’ve seen GMail work, they’ve seen GMaps work. They’ve even read in the newspaper what a cool place to work Google is
Why not try a browser from someone they know and like? It’s easy, it’s fast (things they can experience directly) and they’ve heard it’s safe too.
Svelon #5
03.Sep.08
Unfortunately I’ll have to agree with you, although a small hope lies in the name “Google”, since people (aka naive users) tend to trust Google (for some reason I don’t understand) plus this name carries a lot more money than “Mozilla” with it…
Alexandros #6
03.Sep.08
This sounds more like a general ‘why IE will always be dominant’ rather than a chrome-specific obstacle.
Even so, google is probably the only player in this market other than microsoft with the market power to make default installation deals with hardware vendors such a Dell or HP. It is already doing that with google toolbar. This would turn that disadvantage on its head and make chrome the default that never changes
Stelios #7
03.Sep.08
Oh noes. Another browser.
John Tsevdos #8
03.Sep.08
hehe very pessimistic indeed
Although, Google has a really good chance on educating these users about browsers and potentially convince them to switch to another one… So let’s all (web designers/developers) be optimistic about this move…
oriste #9
03.Sep.08
Sugar hits the nail right on the head with her arguments. But she stops short of coming to the inevitable conclusion imho: since distribution is the key, Google is the only player in a position to install a new “default browser” on the majority of PCs through their search gateway, which is the de facto default search engine for most. I would venture that MS is more afraid than FF right now, which would be a “good thing”.
Joe and Mary PC User don’t care what connects them to the ‘nets, indeed. When Google tells them they’ll get a better search experience by hitting this “download and install” button, they’ll do it. It won’t effect FF market share that much, not until Google can provide all the nerdy tools that FF does. FF is a deliberate choice made with the brain. Chrome will be a convenience choice, just click, don’t think.
O.t.o.h., whether that would be good for you developers/designers is another matter. Google hasn’t given me much confidence in their adaptation of web standards. Looked at the source of their brand new endeavor lately? Check out lively.com. Tables for layout? In 2008? WTF?
Sugar #10
03.Sep.08
Because everyone has been talking about distribution and its merits…
Remember how Internet Explorer 6 became the standard web browser in the first place. It was by default installed in Windows, a technique that was later criticized as monopoly.
For good or for bad, everyone thought IE6 was the synonym of web browsing.
How can Google counter that without being accused of monopoly (again)?
adamo #11
03.Sep.08
The history of CS teaches us that every 10 to 20 years old ideas are “somehow” refreshed and presented as new.
A little more than 10 years ago, Oracle had a browser that was similar in goals (and ambition) to what Chrome want to be today. It did not really work then and it will not now. Some new technologies (like V8) will spring out and get a life of their own making our lives easier, but not Chrome (which is in many ways similar even to HotJava which nobody remembers or talks about today).
Alexandros #12
03.Sep.08
Google cannot be accused of monopoly violations because it is not using an existing monopoly position (>80%) to dominate another market.
Microsoft (ab)used its windows monopoly to preinstall IE, by claiming it was one and the same product. Signing a distribution deal (as is currently done for the google toolbar) is no such monopoly abuse. Nor is distribution of chrome with android, a new entry in the mobile OS space.
oriste #13
03.Sep.08
Technically speaking, in United States v. Microsoft, 87 F. Supp. 2d 30, Microsoft was accused of abusing their monopoly position by bundling IE with Windows. It was the *bundling* that formed the core of the accusation, NOT their monopoly position. The bundling was considered unfair practice because it would restrict the market for all other browser manufacturers on the said desktop.
Google doesn’t hold a monopoly on the desktop or the browser, therefor I don’t think it can be accused of abusing such a position by using it’s distribution mechanism to facilitate easy installation of a browser on the desktop. As long as Google doesn’t restrict access to its services by putting up artificial hurdles for other browsers (thereby unfairly favoring its own browser), or by limiting access to competing services from its browser (thereby unfairly favoring its own services), I don’t see a case here for accusations of monopoly abuse.
kat #14
03.Sep.08
I just wanted to come over and wish you xronia polla
Sugar #15
03.Sep.08
Uhm, guys, I think we’re losing the focus here.
My post was more of a user-centred aspect of Google Chrome launch.
My point (with regards to monopoly) more or less is this: How will Google force Chrome upon people without adopting monopoly tactics?
@kat
I really, really thank you
PanosJee #16
03.Sep.08
Yeah I agree but Google has the cash and it won t be long before we see Dells or whatever coming with Windoze and the full ranger of G software. Like Google Search, Picasa, G Earth and Chrome.
It already happens to some extend and I believe the trend will grow stronger. It has not have to be necessarily Windoze could be any of the small Linux distros for netbooks
Daniel #17
03.Sep.08
Having read the instructions, I was really tempted to write this comment in Esperanto and see whether you would excercise your right to edit it.
Now seriously, I like the general approach of Google Chrome, but I stick to Firefox because of the extensions, which makes it possible to tailor it to one’s needs. And one of mine is precisely to write in Esperanto, which has some diacritic signs I have been unable to produce in Gmail when I access it through Chrome. On the other hand, I can easily type them with an extension in Firefox. So, at least for present time, I stick with Firefox.
Regards,
Daniel
(Buenos Aires, Argentina)